What Changed? (Take Two)

Last month at this time, I wrote an article titled, “What Changed?” In it, I laid out how I didn’t think anything had changed when Kevin Cramer decided to seek reelection rather than challenge Heidi Heitkamp for the U.S. Senate. I said Cramer was never going to run against Heidi, that it would be too much of a gamble. It wouldn’t make sense for him to challenge a popular incumbent when reelection odds seemed sound, I wrote. My take hasn’t changed, but something else has. Cramer has flipped. Today, he’ll announce his campaign against Heitkamp. What changed?

The NDGOP needed Cramer to jump in the race. They’ve admitted that publicly. The White House pleaded for him to jump in. President Trump would do anything Cramer needed during the race is what he told local media. After all of that, Cramer said no and continued to say how much he disliked the Senate. He was better suited for the House where he’d move up the ranks of seniority due to all the retirements. The decision made sense. A month later, and Cramer is flipping on all of it. What changed? Harold Hamm.

Harold Hamm is a multi-billionaire who has made his money from oil development. Hamm leads Continental Resources Inc. which is a big player in North Dakota’s oil development. He is also known for playing a role in North Dakota politics.

In 2011, an oil industry group tried to lower North Dakota’s oil extraction tax. Their attempt used former Governor Ed Schafer as the face of their campaign.  It failed. However, Schafer had personal advancement seemingly because he took the risk and joined their effort. “Former North Dakota Gov. Ed Schafer has joined the board of Continental Resources Inc., the state’s largest oil producer, months after he led an unsuccessful public campaign to prod the Legislature into cutting oil tax rates.” The 2011 Bismarck Tribune article continued, “As part of his director’s compensation, Schafer is receiving 11,945 shares of Continental stock over four years. The shares would be worth more than $770,000 based on Monday’s stock price of about $65 a share.” Keep in mind that price was based in 2011.

Though the effort failed in 2011, the 2015 Republican Legislature cut the oil extraction tax by 23%. That cut goes to places like Texas and Oklahoma where Continental Resources is located. Though Schafer didn’t succeed, in the end, the industry got the tax cut they wanted for years. It just took a while for North Dakota Legislators to jump on board.

Hamm will now be the finance chair of Kevin Cramer’s Senate run. It has been said this played a key role in changing Cramer’s decision from last month. The White House and the President alone couldn’t convince Cramer to jump in January. It appears the oil industry and one of its most prominent leaders may have convinced him to do it in February. Why?

What if Cramer decided to take the political risk – much like Schafer in 2011 – because if he wins he’ll be a U.S. Senator, but if he loses, he may get a cozy personal parachute? The timeline and public announcements sure seem to support this possibility. It could end up being the biggest payday Cramer has had and make it personally worth the political risk to challenge Heitkamp.

People have been quick to point out Hamm has already maxed out to Heitkamp’s campaign. That demonstrates a couple of things. One, Heitkamp has been good for the industry as a U.S. Senator. Two, he isn’t entirely sure Cramer can win. Three, Cramer may be the better bet to look out for industry’s interests over North Dakota’s. Consider it is a business play.

The U.S. Senate race became more interesting since last month. I think it is important to dig into why Cramer flipped. I don’t buy into the talking point of polls dramatically improving in the last month. Cramer told the White House no. He told the Senate hell no, he didn’t want to be a part of their chamber. He told North Dakotans no, that he’d better serve them in the House. What changed?